Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose>=2030 30.3%Führend unter 5 Optionen
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Veraltet25. Feb. 26, 04:11 UTC31. Dez. 30, 12:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement.
- I will try to resolve to when the upgrade occurred, rather than when the report was published. "Fully autonomous" means the upgrade was designed, implemented, tested, and deployed by automated systems; human involvement is limited to setting up the system and requesting an upgrade.
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric will be determined by whatever metric the company chooses to measure performance in their A/B test, not by any specific predefined metric.
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric used to evaluate the upgrade can be any metric chosen by the company conducting the A/B test.
- There is no restriction on what constitutes a valid performance metric.
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test?
- Manifold Markets bewertet >=2030 mit 30% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test entschieden?
- When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement.