Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2027 71.3%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet8. Aug. 25, 19:26 UTC1. Aug. 29, 21:34 UTC
Trends
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This market will resolve to the first year when a freely available large language model achieves a gold medal-level performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad.
- The model must be available before day 1 of the IMO.
- I must be able to use the model without paying.
- For each year, directly after each day of the exam, I will pick the strongest LLMs and give them the problems independently.
- Each LLM has one attempt at each problem.
- I will then grade the problems.
