Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseQ4 2026 14.2%Führend unter 12 Optionen
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet13. Nov. 25, 18:57 UTC31. Dez. 30, 18:50 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRegeln
I want to interact with as few people as possible before getting to Lighthaven
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES when anyone (public release, not a closed beta) can book and complete a fully driverless Waymo ride from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) to Lighthaven, located in Berkeley, CA.
- Resolution requires:
- Waymo offering fully autonomous service (no safety driver) at SFO for passenger pickups
- Waymo's service area extending to Lighthaven in Berkeley
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 182.343,6 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Q4 2026 mit 14% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven? entschieden?
- When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I want to interact with as few people as possible before getting to Lighthaven