Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose> 1 month 99%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet13. Mai 26, 23:42 UTC13. Sept. 30, 23:42 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK's Prime Minister by which date?
FutuurHow many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the duration of the next UK Prime Minister's continuous tenure after Keir Starmer, starting from the date they are officially sworn into office.
- The duration will be measured by the time elapsed between their appointment and the date they officially leave office (the day their successor is appointed or they formally resign/are removed).
- Resolution will be determined using the official records from gov.uk and major credible news outlets such as the BBC or Reuters.
- Each answer option corresponds to the PM remaining in office for a duration strictly greater than the specified time.
- If multiple options are met (e.g., if a PM stays for 2 years, the "> 1 month," "> 6 months," and "> 1 year" options will all resolve YES), this market allows for independent resolution of each answer.
Offene Märkte
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet > 1 month mit 99% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) entschieden?
- Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) soll am 13. September 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria