Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 58.3%
Prognostiker
20
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet22. Juni 26, 04:25 UTC1. Feb. 31, 05:12 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer)
Manifold MarketsWhen will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
Manifold MarketsSanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
PolymarketWho will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
KalshiAndy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves based on length of tenure according to wikipedia or in case not recorded there, significant publications of record or authoritative media.
- From being instilled by the crown to resignation to the crown.
- Market closure date will be adjusted to ensure stays open in normal circumstances to successor submitting resignation to crown.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 58% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? entschieden?
- Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? soll am 1. Februar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves based on length of tenure according to wikipedia or in case not recorded there, significant publications of record or authoritative media.