Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognosePuberty blockers for minors with gender dysphoria 75%Führend unter 12 Optionen
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 42 Minuten
17. Sept. 25, 06:06 UTC1. Jan. 27, 06:41 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter
Manifold MarketsWill it be confirmed that the Charlie Kirk shooter played Helldivers 2 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?
Manifold MarketsWhich method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegeln
This market (https://manifold.markets/Marnix/what-was-the-political-lean-of-the) has a very active and spirited discussion of whether Kirk's murderer was on the left or the right in general.
- But, since he was described as having been "very political" in recent years, I have decided to make a market about his opinions on a number of specific issues which tend to divide the United States electorate.
- As of market creation, I would resolve most of these N/A! I will give disproportionate weight to statements made in the past year.
- I'm setting the close date as 12/31/25, but I will very likely adjust it to coincide with the end of his trial, because I would guess most of the relevant information will come out before then.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has been updated to 12/31/26 (previously 12/31/25).
- The actual close will be adjusted to coincide with the end of the shooter's trial, as most relevant information is expected to come out during the trial proceedings.