Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Other/None 26.8%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Prognostiker
19
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet27. Sept. 25, 21:28 UTC1. Jan. 31, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
Revised Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve after the end date of December 31, 2030.
- The resolution process will be as follows:
- Identify Failed Companies: First, a list will be compiled of all companies that have met any of the "go bust" criteria (defined below) between October 1, 2025, and December 31, 2030.
- Determine the 'Biggest': From that list, the "biggest" will be identified as the company that achieved the highest peak valuation after October 1, 2025.
- Resolution: The market will resolve to the name of that single "biggest" company listed.
