Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 53.1%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet17. Aug. 25, 10:40 UTC30. März 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government revert cannabis legalization in the next 4 years?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWill German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?
Manifold MarketsNATO dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketEU dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, before the federal polling day in February/March 2029 (if any) or by 31 Mar 2029, 23:59 CET otherwise, the federal cabinet in office is no longer a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition.
- This can occur via: (a) the Bundestag elects a new chancellor heading a different coalition; or (b) CDU/CSU or SPD exits government such that ministers from both are no longer in the cabinet.
- Verification will rely on official listings and announcements (Bundestag records of chancellor election and cabinet composition; presidential/bundestag notices on cabinet changes).
- (bundestag.de)
- Resolves NO if, at the cutoff, the cabinet in office is still composed of CDU/CSU and SPD ministers (including any caretaker period with the same parties).
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 53% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? entschieden?
- The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? soll am 30. März 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria