SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
KIOne-Off1MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 69.1%
Prognostiker
44
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet9. Okt. 25, 23:04 UTC10. Okt. 26, 23:04 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 132.799,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.316,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 322.392,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 69% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper). entschieden?
- SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper). soll am 10. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper). abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).