Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Democrats control Congress 63.9%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Democrats control Congress 63.9%Prognostiker
98
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-3.1 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet4. Juli 23, 14:47 UTC31. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?
Manifold MarketsWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketWill Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 2026 US Midterm elections?
FutuurRegeln
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
