Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 20261Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 59.9%
Prognostiker
24
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet19. Nov. 25, 13:48 UTC30. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
