Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsWahl2MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 57%
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19
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Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet19. Nov. 25, 13:48 UTC30. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 57% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? entschieden?
- Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? soll am 30. November 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria