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Nein 76.8%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet7. Apr. 26, 16:49 UTC3. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11)
KalshiWhat will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegeln
I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 77% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? entschieden?
- Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? soll am 3. November 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.