Aktuelle Community-Prognose
≥$30B 100%Führend unter 11 Optionen
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-22.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 25 Minuten
22. Apr. 26, 3:421. Okt. 26, 3:59
Trends
100%
100%
100%
Regeln
Resolves each threshold based on the peak annualized revenue run rate for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before September 30, 2026. "Annualized revenue" means any reported revenue figure extrapolated to a yearly rate (monthly ×12, quarterly ×4, or explicitly stated ARR). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO when the market resolves (see below).
- Resolution timing.
- Revenue disclosure cadence changes at IPO: pre-IPO, ARR figures leak ad-hoc through press; post-IPO, revenue arrives on a quarterly filing schedule with a ~40–45 day lag from quarter-end.
- If OpenAI is still private at September 30, 2026: market resolves at close, based on figures published on or before September 30, 2026.
- If OpenAI is public at September 30, 2026: market waits up to 45 days after September 30, 2026 for the quarter-ending 10-Q or earnings release, then resolves.
- Post-IPO quarterly revenue is annualized as quarterly × 4 and attributed to quarter-end.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 158.784,7 €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+36 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 168.787,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 155.168,3 €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.9pt92%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,89%
- October 31,+2.0pt83%
- October 15,-16.0pt53%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68.9%
- Grok-1.7pt10.7%
- ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 7,9 Mio. €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- BMW Championship Winner
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- XRP price on August 21
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- ZEC price on August 21
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026?
- Manifold Markets bewertet ≥$30B mit 100% (Stand: 21. August 2026).
- Wann wird OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 entschieden?
- OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 soll am 1. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird OpenAI highest annualized revenue run rate by end of September 2026 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves each threshold based on the peak annualized revenue run rate for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before September 30, 2026. "Annualized revenue" means any reported revenue figure extrapolated to a yearly rate (monthly ×12, quarterly ×4, or explicitly stated ARR). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO when the market resolves (see below).