Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 60.8%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
10. Sept. 26, 11:17 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI flips the script and buys or takes over Microsoft by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsAnthropic flips Apple before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves yes if OpenAI is worth more than Apple in market capitalization before 2030
- If OpenAI is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).
- Inspired by @/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030 credit @Bayesian
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 70.257,4 €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54.438,7 €
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.7%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 21.907 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21.907 €
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 20.903,9 €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für OpenAI flips Apple before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 61% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? entschieden?
- OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves yes if OpenAI is worth more than Apple in market capitalization before 2030