Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 93.4%
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5
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Minuten
26. Okt. 26, 22:48 UTC1. Juni 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by which date?
PolymarketIs the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis true?
Manifold MarketsIs the Exponential Time Hypothesis true?
Manifold MarketsWhen will exponential time horizon growth break?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
Context: https://openai.com/index/building-scientific-understanding-with-academic-communities/
- I'll resolve based on the consensus of the mathematical community at market close.
- For intuition (these are not binding rules, more like, rough guidelines):
- If it's demonstrated to be incorrect before the close date, then this can resolve NO early.
- If at market close there's no particular evidence to doubt its validity, by default resolves YES.
- If there's substantial ongoing work to verify it, I will leave the market closed and wait to resolve until it doesn't seem like that work is still ongoing.