Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use??

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 78% (Stand: 27. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use? entschieden?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use? soll am 1. Januar 2051 entschieden werden.

Wie wird Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: "Entry level" is deliberately fuzzy: in 2022 terms this would look like an AI (or AIs) that is assigned an issue, checks out code, makes edits, and submits a PR (that is accepted).

Diesen Markt im Code oder in einem KI-Agenten nutzen

Kostenloses JSON zu diesem Markt, ohne API-Schlüssel:

KI-Agenten: pm_data_event über den MCP-Server von CoinRithm aufrufen:

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+9.9pt96%
• Anthropic-5.3pt4%
• Alibaba+0.1pt0%

+18 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

3,4 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

165.685,9 €

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic-1.0pt56%
• Google+1.0pt35%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+0.8pt59.5%
• Gemini-2.0pt30.1%
• ChatGPT+0.9pt

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202795%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt

POLYMARKET

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?

• December 31-6.0pt82%
• December 15-14.0pt74%
• November 30+7.0pt65%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-1.5pt28.9%
• $2.0–$2.25T+0.7pt24%
• $1.5–$1.75T+1.3pt17.3%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

• Anthropic IPO by which date?
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• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
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