[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
KIOne-Off
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 24.10.2026, 17:41 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 50.3%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
7. Nov. 23, 00:06 UTC2. Feb. 50, 20:31 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a widely read alternative to The Doors Of Stone written by AI released by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/8404/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI.
- For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed here.
- If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.