Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 89.4%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 47 Minuten
Verzogert4. Juni 26, 04:59 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Bryan Johnson achieve his goal of aging escape velocity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we reach the longevity escape velocity soon enough to save my cats?
Manifold MarketsWill Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) happen earlier for 30 year olds than for 80 year olds?
Manifold MarketsWill longevity escape velocity happen earlier for palm cockatoos than for hyacinth macaws?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a cure for schizophrenia before 2032?
Manifold MarketsTestosterone unscheduled/rescheduled more permissively in US by end of 2028?
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2030, there is a clear consensus or official declaration in the scientific and medical communities that humans (or a specific human cohort) have achieved longevity escape velocity (LEV) (also known as "actuarial escape velocity").
- To resolve YES, at least one of the following conditions must be met before the cutoff date:
- Scientific Publication: A major, peer-reviewed scientific journal (such as Nature, Science, Cell, or Nature Aging) publishes a study or review concluding that a newly developed medical therapy (or suite of therapies) has successfully achieved longevity escape velocity for humans—defined as extending remaining life expectancy by more than one year for every calendar year that passes.
- Global Health Body Recognition: A major health organization (such as the World Health Organization) or regulatory body (such as the US FDA) officially approves or recognizes a class of rejuvenation therapies with the explicit statement that they enable longevity escape velocity in humans.
- Expert Consensus: A reputable, large-scale survey of biogerontologists or a recognized forecasting platform (such as Metaculus) officially resolves a corresponding question establishing that LEV has been achieved for humans.
