Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 89.1%
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet14. Aug. 25, 04:32 UTC30. Apr. 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will the next Bond film make at the box office?
Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez get Divorced/ Separate in 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
KalshiNext James Bond film: Artist performing the James Bond Theme
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as Q
KalshiRegeln
[image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- NOTE: I'm adding this higher bar because I want to capture "the sort of casting that would annoy people"—if she shows up as a cameo in the background, it really doesn't matter.
- So if she says any words, that automatically is enough to resolve YES (even if it's a tiny role).
- But if she's a key part of any single scene (e.g., you see her in peril in some action scene), that resolves YES as well.
- My intuitive bar will be roughly "someone be certain to notice her role in the movie if they were looking for it" (if most people watching the movie would have no clue who her character is, e.g., a background cameo, I don't want to resolve it YES).
