Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 56.9%
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet5. Juni 24, 00:58 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost over one trillion dollars around 2030.
- Clarifications:
- $1T worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)
- Computers must be networked together and training one model.
- They do not need to synchronize weights at each gradient step.
- Value of data centers will be estimated with reasonable depreciation.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für $1T AI training cluster before 2031??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 57% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird $1T AI training cluster before 2031? entschieden?
- $1T AI training cluster before 2031? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird $1T AI training cluster before 2031? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost over one trillion dollars around 2030.