Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 67.2%
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Veraltet10. Juni 24, 21:58 UTC1. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
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100GW AI training run before 2031?
Manifold Markets1GW AI training run before 2027?
Manifold Markets$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegeln
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 10GW of electricity in ~2028.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 10GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th
