Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 75.4%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 22 Stunden
Veraltet27. Apr. 26, 03:00 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
PredictItWill JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit?
KalshiWhen will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if JD Vance undergoes any cosmetic surgical procedure on his jaw or face (including, but not limited to, jawline contouring, chin augmentation, rhytidectomy/facelift, or blepharoplasty) between the date of this market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal) or official statements from JD Vance or his authorized representatives confirming the procedure.
- If it is ambiguous whether a procedure is "cosmetic" (e.g., reconstructive surgery following an injury or medically necessary corrective surgery), the market will resolve to "No" unless the surgeon or official sources explicitly characterize the procedure as cosmetic.
- If no such confirmation is available by the resolution date, the market resolves to "No."
- JD Vance, currently serving as a U.S. Senator from Ohio and the Vice President-elect of the United States, has faced public speculation regarding his appearance as his national profile has increased.
