Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2028-2030 48%Führend unter 8 Optionen
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed.
- This question explores the timeline for when an AI-generated book will independently achieve bestseller status.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve as “YES” if all of the following conditions are met:
- At least 99% of the words generated must authored by AI.
- Overwhelming majority of the core ideas, narrative, content, and exposition are generated by AI.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2028-2030 mit 48% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? entschieden?
- In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? soll am 1. Januar 2051 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed.