In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

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Ja 79.9%

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3. Feb. 23, 16:31 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC

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See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).

Resolution criteria from the post: "The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books.
It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references.
It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".
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In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

KIOne-Off4J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Ja 79.9%

Prognostiker

109

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden

Veraltet

3. Feb. 23, 16:31 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Manifold Markets

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Manifold Markets

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

Manifold Markets

Top AI model in September?

Kalshi

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Polymarket

Regeln

See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).

Resolution criteria from the post: "The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books.
It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references.
It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".
Related markets:

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement??: Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 80% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
Wann wird In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement? entschieden?: In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
Wie wird In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

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