Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 65.5%
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Andrej Karpathy and Elon back working together by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsWill Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?
Manifold MarketsIlya sutskever become a father by 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill "Ilya Sutskever Deposition Transcript" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Either joining the same company, starting one together or other method of being in the same organization.
- The minimum participation level is "working".
- Participation levels that don't count:
- They both have to be a member of the org and doing work at the same time.
- Work means at least two days a week in general spending their time advancing the work of the organization as they should, in an organized way, and this must be overlapping time (in terms of dates of total employment) for them.
- Orgs that count
