If the US does not enact binding pre-deployment evals before 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ by 2036?
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Verzogert6. Sept. 26, 10:25 UTC1. Jan. 36, 05:00 UTC
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Condition: the US does not enact binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force) before January 1, 2030.
- Resolves N/A if it does.
- Question: Given the condition, resolves YES if before January 1, 2036, an AI-caused incident kills 1,000 or more people — a single incident or tightly connected series in which credible reporting attributes the deaths primarily to an AI system's actions or failures (accident, or misuse where AI provided decisive capability).
- Otherwise NO.
- Twin of the regime-conditioned market; see that market's endogeneity note.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
