If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
One-OffGesellschaft & KulturWissenschaftManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 19:05 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseUFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities 21%Führend unter 18 Optionen
Prognostiker
60
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet7. Aug. 23, 22:27 UTC1. Jan. 00, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsIf Bee switches from Vim to VScode, will she kick herself for not having done so sooner?
Manifold MarketsWhen will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Manifold MarketsUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
KalshiIs there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market is intended to aggregate the most likely reasons why UFO's have word-view shattering origins (for Eliezer Yudkowsky), and reward those who thought of them first.
- In most worlds, I expect this market to resolve "N/A", but who doesn't like the idea of finding the best conspiracy theory.
- I will resolve it to the answer that closest/most specificly details why, so long as it was posted prior to the "worldview shattering event" becoming public knowledge.
- If my resolution appears to controversial, I am quite happy to let a group of trustworthy-ish users/admins re-resolve it.
- This question resolves N/A if Eliezer wins this bet:
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/?commentId=rsKjPAPqeFwQuNibD)Kudos to @Joshua's market for bringing this bet to my attention.
