When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
TechnikOne-Off18JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 05:17 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore January 2040 10.4%Führend unter 15 Optionen
Prognostiker
112
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet23. Nov. 23, 18:10 UTC1. Jan. 45, 19:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology?
Manifold MarketsIf EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsIf Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRegeln
See previously:
- @/Joshua/by-what-year-will-we-know-that-any
- @/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
- This is an unlinked market, so that each time period can resolve NO independently, or they can resolve YES all together.
- It also includes meta-options about the other options.
- An answer resolves NO if it arrives without there being proof of a UFO/UAP from before market creation having a worldview-shattering origin such as aliens, time-travelers, interdimensional travelers, secret superintelligence made by ancient humans, biblical demons, etc.