If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlKriminalität & JustizUS-Zwischenwahlen 20262MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 65.7%
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23. Sept. 26, 06:08 UTC3. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
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This was in the small print, but I'm magnifying it here: this market resolves YES only if either the attempts are aimed at enough Democrats to challenge their majority, or if the majority > 5, five candidates.
- This market is conditional on Democrats winning at least one chamber of the 120th Congress in the 2026 elections.
- Race winners are determined by AP race calls as they stand on January 3, 2027, with these adjustments: (a) If AP withholds or retracts a call because of a Qualifying Action (for example, because counting was halted or results were voided), the race goes to the candidate AP had called, or, if AP never called it, to the candidate leading in the last reported count before the Qualifying Action.
- (b) Calls changed for other reasons, such as a recount, are used as changed.
- (c) If AP calls are unavailable, Decision Desk HQ calls are used instead.
- Democrats count toward the Democratic total.
