KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitBefore Sep 1, 2026 9%-0.5ptFührend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat
74 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
21.085,7 €
Liquidität
298.395,4 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
0.5% / 0.9%
Spread
0.4 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 29 Minuten
7. Apr. 26, 0:001. Aug. 26, 3:59
Trends
0%
0%
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Before Aug 1, 20261%
Plattformen vergleichen· Before Sep 1, 2026
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Mittel | 9% | — | 21.085,7 € | 298.395,4 € | vor 29 Minuten | |
 Polymarket84% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 100% | — | 558,1 € | 11.903,2 € | vor 9 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
0.1 pts3T
100%
0%
73 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen108.252 €
24h-Volumen558,1 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$24.0k2. Juli27T Daten28. Juli
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If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.