If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?
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Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 72.2%
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Veraltet7. Apr. 26, 17:28 UTC7. Apr. 31, 17:27 UTC
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If AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
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Resolves N/A if AI does not have an ok outcome, or if AI has an ok outcome because of a pause, human enhancement, a non-routine effort prioritizing alignment as a blocker on capabilities rather than happening alongside capabilities as a second priority, or some non-AI route to a transhumanist future.
- For example, if OpenAI or Anthropic's strategy worked, this market would not resolve N/A; they both have a "safety team" in a capabilities org, rather than a capabilities team in an alignment org, and are not pursuing alternate paths for a transhumanist future.
- Otherwise, resolves YES if alignment is easy, and NO otherwise. "Alignment is easy" means 6 or easier on the ten levels of alignment difficulty.