Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 24.10.2026, 11:00 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Will cause extinction, foom 45.1%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Will cause extinction, foom 45.1%Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet29. Dez. 23, 13:14 UTC1. Jan. 01, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
This is a duplicate of this question but with the "will not cause extinction" answer removed.
- If humanity is not extinct in 2100 (or if the extinction was caused by something other than AI), this question will resolve n/a.
- Please try to identify which of the following scenarios will be the "main" cause for human extinction:
- Foom: rapidly self-improving AI destroys humanity as a result of pursuing some misaligned goal
- Terminator: AI blatantly disregards human instructions and pursues its own goals.
- Alignment Failure: AI appears superficially good but causes extinction due to a subtly misstated goal.
