If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 61.9% (Stand: 27. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030? entschieden?

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030? soll am 15. Februar 2031 entschieden werden.

Wie wird If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Condition: the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).

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KALSHI

Recession this year?

• No97.5%
• Yes-3.0pt2.5%

Gesamtvolumen

3,4 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

37.391 €

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY in November

• Above 2.0%98.5%
• Above 2.2%98.5%
• Above 2.3%98.5%

KALSHI

Unemployment in November

• Above 3.7%+2.0pt96%
• Above 3.8%-8.0pt92%
• Above 3.9%-5.0pt82.5%

KALSHI

Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

• No64%
• Yes+3.0pt36%

Gesamtvolumen

31.876,1 €

24h-Volumen

8676,9 €

KALSHI

CPI in November

• Above -0.1%+5.0pt92.5%
• Above 0.0%+1.0pt81.5%
• Above 0.1%+1.0pt

KALSHI

CPI YoY in December

• Above 3.0%96.5%
• Above 3.1%95.5%
• Above 3.3%94.5%

• Recession in 2027?
• October Unemployment Rate
• CPI in October
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
• CPI in December
• CPI YoY in November
• Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
• Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)
• US recession by end of 2026?
• Core CPI in November