Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2027 74.1%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet28. März 24, 09:19 UTC1. Jan. 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Super Heavy or Starship crash into the catching tower before 2030? (read description)
Manifold Markets2029 Women's Rugby World Cup Quarter/Semi/Final/Winners [Read Description]
Manifold MarketsWhat’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Manifold MarketsWill the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before 2035? [read description]
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
If you don't want to read the full description, the short version is this: The probability of each time category represents the percentage of people that will be worse at problem-solving than an AI that doesn't use extreme amounts of energy.
- Codeforces contests will be used to measure the performance.
- Competitive Programming and AI
- AIs as of 2024 are good at retrieving previously discovered knowledge, they lack however the ability to navigate complex state spaces to arrive at new solutions.
- CP problems provide a good framework for testing them in this area, as we can easily test their solutions with a computation.
- As such, their rating in Codeforces will also reflect to some extent their ability to solve complex problems relative to other humans.