Manifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: Yes (97.4%)
Entschieden: 25.10.2026, 13:47
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Yes97.4%
No2.5999999999999943%
Gewonnen
Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Manifold MarketsCoinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)
Manifold MarketsWhen will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)
Manifold MarketsWhich answers will *exactly* match a *full* New York Times front page headline before 2028? [READ DESCRIPTION]
Manifold MarketsNintendo Switch Sports Resort: Metacritic score
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if there exists a publicly available, usable by hobbyists, softmod for the Nintendo Switch 2 before market close.
- An unreleased or one-off hack doesn't count.
- Any OS version, game, etc counts as long as it was ever publicly available at some point.
- "soft" - Does not require nontrivial disassembly of the console, does not require specialist tools or devices (including flashcarts), and does not require permanent physical alterations to the console.
- For example, something like the fusee-gelee vulnerability would count because it can be accomplished without disassembly, with everyday hardware (you can use a paperclip or something instead of a jig), and does not require a permanent hardware modification.
- "mod" - Must be able to run nontrivial homebrew code.
