Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Guillotines have a come back by 2030?

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 85.4% (Stand: 29. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Guillotines have a come back by 2030 entschieden?

Guillotines have a come back by 2030 soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves yes if there is one public execution held with a guillotine by 2030 with video evidence.

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 85.4%

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Fragetyp

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Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden

Veraltet

27. Sept. 26, 03:32 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC

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Resolves yes if there is one public execution held with a guillotine by 2030 with video evidence.

Update 2026-09-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The execution must meet the following criteria:
Can occur anywhere in the world.
Must be a judicial action.
Must be held in public and ceremonially by a domestic actor for a domestic audience.
Snuff films and ISIS-style videos do not count.