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Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?
Manifold MarketsGlobal catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
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This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/
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