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Veraltet21. Juli 23, 00:31 UTC2. Jan. 00, 04:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
KalshiRegeln
This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/
- [link preview]
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.085 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 44.371,8 €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 72% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? entschieden?
- Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? soll am 2. Januar 2100 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems.