Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
One-OffGesellschaft & KulturManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 66.7%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert21. Juli 23, 00:27 UTC2. Jan. 00, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will human population first decrease?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?
Manifold MarketsWill nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This question will resolve as Yes if before 2100, the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- Resovles the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/
- [link preview]