Aktuelle Community-Prognose
1.295 degrees Celsius or more 87.1%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+31.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet1. Sept. 26, 10:12 UTC14. Jan. 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Global Average Temperature August 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsGlobal Average Temperature Sept 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsWill the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsConsecutive days of average temperature in San Antonio above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiConsecutive days of average temperature in Oklahoma City above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiConsecutive days of average temperature in Las Vegas above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiRegeln
Details of data is currently at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
- with a txt file with the data at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
- (or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
- For this annual market, it is the J-D column for 2026 when that is shown after Dec 2026 data has been published.
- More options can be added but please keep these sensible.
- January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period.
Offene Märkte
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 85.315,7 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 153.550,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 39.161,6 €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 409.901,9 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet 1.295 degrees Celsius or more mit 87% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) entschieden?
- Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) soll am 14. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Details of data is currently at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/