Aktuelle Community-Prognose
12h - 14h 19.6%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet21. Mai 26, 19:08 UTC30. Sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsKimi K3 Thinking METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Gemini 3.5 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.
- Gemini 3.5 Pro variants (Preview, GA, Deep Think) count for the purpose of this market.
- Gemini 3.1 Pro or earlier would not count.
- Gemini 4 would not count.
- Gemini 3.5 Flash would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets bewertet 12h - 14h mit 20% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon entschieden?
- Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon soll am 30. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Gemini 3.5 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.