Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBy Jan 1st 2030 39%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet24. März 25, 02:29 UTC2. Jan. 30, 00:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Resolution Criteria:
- This pause could come in the form of a government mandate, court order (e.g., declaring models copyright infringement), blackmail, organized protest, etc. What matters is the outcome: new higly-capability models are not being trained because of some external force has prevented them.
- Motivation and Context:
- Several researchershave called for a "pause" on AI development, in order to allow society (and safety research) to catch up with the rapid pace of AI development.
- So far this hasn't happened, and it's looked like it won't happen any time soon.
- Will it ever happen?