Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2038 80%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+30.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten
9. Sept. 26, 18:12 UTC1. Jan. 40, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRegeln
I'm trying to point at jobs that can "in theory" be done by a sufficiently good multi-modal LLM.
- If the job requires only the production of digital artifacts, it counts.
- On the other hand I'm excluding:
- Jobs that require physical interaction with the world
- Jobs that depend on significant interaction with humans external to the organization
- In other words: I'm not asking when robotics will be solved, and I'm not asking when humans will be comfortable interacting with an AI.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 93.738,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 59.491 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt22.9%
- Grok+3.2pt8.6%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 60.772,6 €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 32.328,3 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2038 mit 80% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? entschieden?
- By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? soll am 1. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I'm trying to point at jobs that can "in theory" be done by a sufficiently good multi-modal LLM.