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Veraltet19. Mai 25, 12:14 UTC30. Juni 27, 23:59 UTC
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Will Australia loosen copyright laws to allow AI model training by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Hinge #2 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- "If the fastest models trained in mid‑2027 require one‑quarter the elapsed time of equally large runs eighteen months earlier without a node shrink below four nanometres, that will be strong evidence that software‑only acceleration is real, and is not highly bottlenecked by compute or real-world experiments slowing the AI researchers down."
- The other bets:
- #1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1
- #4: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/g7-country-manages-three-years-of-6
