Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 57.8%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet30. Juli 25, 23:27 UTC4. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.
- Arrest required; handcuffs, perp walk, and mug shot optional.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what constitutes an 'arrest' for this market:
- An arrest does not require handcuffs, a perp walk, or a mug shot.
- An arrest confirmed via legal proceedings but without these public elements (e.g., Caroline Ellison's arrest) will count.
- Being handcuffed and taken away in a cop car is considered sufficient to count as an arrest.
Offene Märkte
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 16.548,1 €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt19%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 507.580,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7724,1 €
KALSHIWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Anthony Fauci-2.0pt35%
- John Brennan+1.0pt34%
- Ilhan Omar+3.0pt18%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No70.3%
- Yes29.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 357.990,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5089,8 €
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-3.5pt8%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan+2.0pt26%
- Letitia James+8.9pt15%
- Anthony Fauci+1.0pt14%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
- Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 2026 Congressional candidate arrested??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 58% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? entschieden?
- 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? soll am 4. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.