Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 57%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet30. Juli 25, 23:27 UTC4. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?
PolymarketWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketIlhan Omar arrested by which date?
PolymarketFlávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by Brazilian authorities by October 31?
PolymarketWill Eduardo Bolsonaro be arrested in 2026?
FutuurRegeln
Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.
- Arrest required; handcuffs, perp walk, and mug shot optional.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what constitutes an 'arrest' for this market:
- An arrest does not require handcuffs, a perp walk, or a mug shot.
- An arrest confirmed via legal proceedings but without these public elements (e.g., Caroline Ellison's arrest) will count.
- Being handcuffed and taken away in a cop car is considered sufficient to count as an arrest.