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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Regulierung
  3. Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

17.0% (24h)RegulierungOne-OffUS PoliticsTrade PolicyPolitikWahl19T
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 20%-17.0%
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0,4 €

Liquidität

0,7 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

19.0% / 28.0%

Spread

47.4%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten

1. Juni 26, 14:001. Juli 26, 3:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes20%

Regeln

If the President announces a new trade deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
  • Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
  • Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
  • It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
  • New arrangements include, but are not limited to:

Verwandte Märkte

Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

0,2 €
Before Jul 1, 2026: 9%KalshiKALSHI
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

891,5 €
Ja: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

5,9 €
$0 / No Acquisition: 81%KalshiKALSHI
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

177,9 €
Ja: 5%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

41,8 €
Before 2027: 11%KalshiKALSHI
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

776,9 €
June 30: 9%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

If the President announces a new trade deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
  • Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
  • Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
  • It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
  • New arrangements include, but are not limited to: