FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 87%
Nein 87%Marktqualitat
33 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
925,9 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
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Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsWhen is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
PolymarketWhich Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This event predicts whether Ukraine will formally grant constitutional or legal autonomy to the Donbas region at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Ukrainian constitutional amendments or laws establishing autonomy for the Donbas region.
- If Ukraine formally enacts constitutional or legal measures granting autonomy to the Donbas region during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If autonomy is granted only to part of the Donbas region, Futuur may use its discretion to determine whether this constitutes effective autonomy.
- If official legal texts are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major Ukrainian or international news organizations.