FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja 92%
Ja 92%Marktqualitat
32 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
729,3 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will succeed John Swinney as First Minister of Scotland?
Manifold MarketsWhen will John Swinney be replaced as First Minister?
Manifold MarketsWho will be First Minister of Scotland at some point in their life?
Manifold MarketsScotland independent from the UK by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Scotland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRegeln
This event predicts whether John Swinney will remain in office as First Minister of Scotland through December 31, 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Scottish Government announcements confirming the First Minister.
- If John Swinney officially remains First Minister through the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If he resigns, is removed, or is replaced before that date, the market will resolve to "No" at the moment of the official announcement.
- Temporary leaves of absence will not affect resolution as long as he officially retains the position.