How many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2026?
US-PolitikOne-OffGeopolitikLateinamerika2Mon
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This event predicts how many individuals from the group known as “Núcleo 1” (“Core #1”), as defined by rulings of Brazil’s Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) regarding the 8 January 2023 coup attempt, will officially lose their military ranks during 2026, up to December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC.
- The individuals considered for this count are: Jair Messias Bolsonaro, Almir Garnier, Augusto Heleno, Mauro Cid, Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, and Walter Souza Braga Netto.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is official announcements, rulings, or public releases by the Supremo Tribunal Militar (STM) and/or Brazil’s Ministry of Defense confirming the definitive loss of military rank.
- If such official sources are unavailable or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and consistent consensus reported by reliable news organizations selected by Futuur.
- These markets will be resolved based on the substantive outcome—the number of individuals who in fact lose their military rank—rather than minor technicalities of wording or procedure.
- If no fair and definitive determination is possible by the end of the Market Period, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.
