Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
PolitikGeopolitikOne-OffSportChessLatin AmericaWahlMiddle East2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 55%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet20. Feb. 26, 20:51 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
Manifold MarketsIran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketWill the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in the event that regime change occurs in Iran, credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, etc.) reports that the change was achieved primarily through a military coup—defined as the forcible seizure of power by military or paramilitary forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or regular military) displacing the existing clerical leadership.
- The coup must involve the military taking direct control of state institutions and governance.
- Examples of such types of coups: Brazil 1964, Chile 1973, Argentina 1976.
- This market resolves NO if regime change occurs through other means: purely popular revolution (French Revolution, USSR, Romania), civil war (must be longer than 1 year, Syria is an example), foreign military occupation (Iraq, Afghanistan), or voluntary transition of power (Brazil 1985, Chile 1990).
- American or israeli airstrikes, blockade or covert operations doesn't count as foreign military occupation.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 55% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup? entschieden?
- Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup? soll am 31. Dezember 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria