Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 79.3%
Tahminciler
33
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
11 dakika önce güncellendi
20 Eyl 26 07:41 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsKurallar
Currently Trump seems very bullish on AI/AGI and dismissive of AI safety.
- This market will resolve YES if I believe that his position on either has changed significantly.
- It will resolve based on social media posts his accounts make, executive orders etc. as long as it's attributable to him and not a quick quip.
- What he actually believes is not relevant for this market, only what he says and does.
- Trump changes his mind a lot, so I'd need to see a shift lasting longer than a couple days (maybe a week of consistency) to resolve YES, or some large decision like a China deal.
- If I'm not convinced he has changed his mind before EOY 2026, I will resolve this NO.
